Phantasmix Stock Blog

3 months of advances on SPX was erased in 13 sessions, or 3 weeks.
They say it’s a sign of a bull market – small steady advances and quick vicious sell-offs.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of institutional buying so far.

As predicted, I’m tempted to hold SPY puts over the weekend, but last 12 Mondays in a row were UP days. What to do, what to do…

Major markets sold off today, with the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) up more than 20%. From a historical and statistical perspective, when the VIX surged 20% or more on a single session in the past, the market regularly turned around the then following session recovering at least a part of it’s previous session’s losses.

Source and more info: Trading the Odds

Update as of Feb 3rd.

I don’t get it. How is it that the average NYSE prices are still climbing with the general market selling off?

1,050 on $SPX or thereabouts is a very logical support zone – 34ema and 50ema on the weekly are around there, and stochastics are getting close to oversold finally… Curiously, the top box stochastics – long-term – haven’t moved much.

Around that level, or $105 on SPY, I will sell my SPY puts and will add to the calls. Once it gets to $105, it’ll be tempting to hold to $103, but that’s just greedy.

What’s the logical outcome here? If this H&S plays out, wow! I guess we could also be in for 2-3 years of sideways action first.