Archive for July, 2008

Gold and Silver as Stores of Value

Maybe you’d like to know this…

Historically, silver was used for daily transaction, for smaller amounts; gold – for storing wealth and for larger transaction.

FSLR and Stock Valuation

It may seem I have a vendetta against FSLR. No, I don’t, but I’m short its stock, and this is a very firm conviction short. When I read this…

Analysts sing First Solar’s praises. “People don’t fully appreciate how [it] is going to change the entire business model,” Citigroup’s Mr. Arcuri says…

Mr. Arcuri’s 12-month price target for First Solar stock is $450, while Mr. Krop’s is $360.

From Globe Investor, May 2008 (by the way they posted it up on the home page again probably due to the fact that FSLR is up so much after earnings release tonight, as in – ‘we told you so’.)

… I can’t help but think of this:

That means there’s a huge market opportunity for companies that can cut through the clutter and actually make life (and business) easier. Who’s positioned best? As we see it, four companies: Nokia (NOK: $54), Nortel Networks (NT: $77), Enron (ENE: $73), and Oracle (ORCL: $74).

Fortune, August 2000

FYI, here are live quotes for the above: (NOK: 9.04 0.00%), (NT: 0.32 0.00%), (ENE: 0.00 N/A), (ORCL: 22.48 0.00%).

Internet companies were also to change the entire business model. And they did, but not before their stocks returned to a more sane valuation from the 1998-2000 levels.

It’s disgusting how these analysts keep pumping clearly over-valued stocks and never, not once do they mention the valuation. Yes, the company may be good and have good prospects, but is it good enough for a 23 billion$ market cap? Their sales for the year will be $1.2b. Market cap = 23 times gross sales. That’s JDSU all over again.

And I’d like to point out again, insiders sold nearly $1.5bil worth of shares (from options exercised at around $20), with annual sales being less than that.

What a joke!

If I’m missing something obvious, do let me know.

Links

Skirt Length Theory

Long dress

…skirt lengths are a predictor of the stock market direction. According to the theory, if skirts are short, it means the markets are going up. And if skirt are long, it means the markets are heading down.

The idea behind this theory is that shorter skirts tend to appear in times when general consumer confidence and excitement is high, meaning the markets are bullish. In contrast, the theory says long skirts are worn more in times of fear and general gloom, indicating that things are bearish.

Investopedia

Not sure how reliable this indicator is, but I noticed back in February that catalogs started showing full length dresses. Maybe I noticed it because I pay attention to the market, but it really is interesting.

The same companies haven’t carried a maxi-dress or a maxi-skirt for 2-3 year. Last year I wanted to buy a long summer dress and I couldn’t find one anywhere (except of the evening variety)! This summer daytime long dresses are everywhere. Now, there are still mid- and short length ones, but longer lengths are definitely creeping in. Another sign that consumers aren’t feeling very cheery. Though I must say cleavage is in, that’s gotta be another fashion-related stock market sign but what it means – I don’t know.

Long dressLong dress

Virtual Money

Photo credit: re_birf

We’re moving away from cash, it’s mostly virtual money now. If you were working at a bank – and had access to computers – I wonder how hard would it be to add a zero to select few bank accounts? Nobody needs to lose the money, just a few accounts would gain some. What’s the harm? Well, if you were to do that, you’d just dilute everyone else’s money a little bit, inflate. It would be sort of a localized Fed injection of money.

I thought about it after watching “America: Freedom to Fascism”. Even IRS (!) of all things has trillions of missing money every single year, so they just write it off as “undocumented expenses”.

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