Phantasmix Stock Blog

What are analyst opinions really worth and do they help to make a decision? Below are actual analyst ratings for a stock I will reveal in the comments for this post. Judging by these numbers alone, what would you say the stock is worth?

As you can see, opinions vary wildly. Yahoo usually evens out all these estimate, and shows a “1y Target Estimate”, which is $6.83 in this case.

So… pick a number, then click to see if you guessed.

22-Aug-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $10 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Roth Capital Buy -> Hold $11 -> $5
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Robert W. Baird Outperform -> Neutral $13 -> $8
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Friedman Billings Outperform -> Mkt Perform $10 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade DA Davidson Buy -> Neutral $14 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade BB&T Capital Mkts Buy -> Hold
08-Aug-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $11 -> $10
31-Jul-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $13 -> $11
30-Jul-08 Initiated Pali Research Buy $10
23-May-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $12 -> $11
23-May-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $14 -> $13
23-May-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $15 -> $14
23-May-08 Downgrade Piper Jaffray Buy -> Neutral
12-May-08 Downgrade Citigroup Buy -> Sell $14.50 -> $9
09-May-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $16 -> $15
08-Apr-08 Upgrade Wachovia Mkt Perform -> Outperform
14-Mar-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $15 -> $16
18-Jan-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $19 -> $15
11-Jan-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $16 -> $14
11-Jan-08 Reiterated Caris & Company Below Average $12 -> $11
10-Jan-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $17 -> $14

• All of us, from time to time, need a plunge into freedom and novelty, after which routine and discipline will seem delightful by contrast.
• Modesty and unselfishness – these are the virtues which men praise – and pass by.
• Business is a combination of war and sport.
• In literature as in love, we are astonished at what is chosen by others.
• Old age is far more than white hair, wrinkles, the feeling that it is too late and the game finished, that the stage belongs to the rising generations. The true evil is not the weakening of the body, but the indifference of the soul.
• A marriage without conflicts is almost as inconceivable as a nation without crises.

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The stock market appears to follow a 10-year cycle. During the first half of the decade equity prices on average do not increase, however in the second half they clearly do. In addition, during the 20th century U.S. equities have demonstrated very good performance in years ending with the number 5 (e.g. 1975, 1985 or 1995). Their average profit amounted to 34.61%. That equals half of the average profit for the entire decade! There were no losing years. On the other hand with years ending in 7 there were often price slumps.

More details at the source: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_dekad.html

Latest trade updates are now posted on a separate page.

Winners: 26
Average win: $141.64

Losers: 11
Average loss: $104.15

Win percentage: 70.27%

All in all, not a bad month, but would be even better if I just sat on my hands this last week.

Looking back at August mistakes…

• Do not deal with indices directly (QQQQ, SPY). Not enough volatility to make it worthwhile.
• Try to stick to individual stocks. I know I’ve been saying this forever, but I’ll try to stay out of Proshares ETFs unless it’s obviously low-hanging fruit.
• Do not jump into trades on a whim. This is not a game.
• Having a watch list and sticking to it has been working really well. Stuff that I find during the day is a hit or miss, usually. Since I try to not daytrade, and my average holding time is probably about 3 days, preparation in advance is the key.
• If I don’t understand why a stock is behaving a certain way, get out fast. I don’t care much to find out the fundamentals of each particular company in detail, and if a stock is being irrational there may be something brewing that’ll mess up my trade.
• Have more patience.
• Do not over-margin. My biggest trading losses have been from margin calls.
• Do not buy on anonymous blog tips without research. There are a few good blogs where I get ideas, but I used to just blindly trust them without research (yep, idiot).

I must say after reading somewhere that people consider this market to be “the toughest in the last 50 years”, I feel good about having made money at all!

Have a great weekend, everyone.