As for the retail investor sentiment, it shifted far towards the bearish side, very fast.

That’s another contrary indicator.

I don’t want to be short here.

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I sold SPY calls on Friday and made about 2%, which is of course, nothing to brag about, but I’m still struggling with timing options. Soooo… I’m happy to get out mildly positive/flat.

LYG (international bank, money center) is my only open position and I’m currently in the black on it. I plan to add AZK (profitable junior gold miner) when it corrects.

Will keep scanning charts, maybe I’ll find something more interesting than AZK. But for now, that is the plan.

Earth Lights, Earth at Night
Click to enlarge

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• Trade Updates, January 7

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Get yer subscription here — Kingsbury International (not an affiliate link but feel free to share these early reports with me, should you subscribe ).

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Questrade offers 80% loan value on gold bullion in non-registered accounts. You can buy gold on credit and borrow on the bullion already in your margin account.

More info @ Questrade

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Stops must accurately reflect volatility and range. Stops must never, ever be based on what the trader can afford to lose. They must be placed where they ought to be and we reduce our trading size as required to manage risk to capital. This is our definitive edge.

Teresa Lo, Invivo Analytics

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“Anyone with average intelligence can learn to trade. This is not rocket science. However, it’s much easier to learn what you should do in trading than to do it. Good systems tend to violate normal human tendencies. Of the people who can learn the basics, only a small percentage will be successful traders.

If a betting game among a certain number of participants is played long enough, eventually one player will have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes in a few hands. Something like this happens in the market. There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.”

William Eckhardt, from The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America’s Top Traders

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Long BEE.
Risky trade, so playing it small.

Company has $0.92 per share in cash, book value $9+.
Volume pattern is positive since mid-July to present.

Negatives: insiders and institutions are selling.

Hat tip for the idea to Jelly Bean Trader.

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$QQQQ Monthly, 20ema

Just one Cubes chart, for comparison purposes only. The price is above 20ema on the monthly.

$SPY Monthly, 20ema

Hasn’t quite made it up there yet.

$SPY Monthly, 1993 to present, 20ema

To proclaim a new bull market with confidence, it’s pretty obvious the price has to make it over the 20ema on the monthly chart.

$SPY Monthly, 13/34ema

13/34ema cross would also be a confirmation of the turnaround.

$SPY Weekly, 13/34ema

13/34ema cross has already happened on the weekly, and both moving averages are pointing up.

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(AAPL: 258.11 -1.09%) Apple

Price-MACD diverged some time ago, rising wedge seems to have broken down on increased volume.

$SPX

Similar to the AAPL chart, there’s divergence on the MACD though less significant and a potential rising wedge (bearish reversal pattern).

Markets and tech performance is tied to the U.S. dollar which looks to be reversing to the upside, at least it did today.

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2-year daily chart of GLD, gold ETF.

• Inverse head and shoulders (bullish pattern)
• Also bullish is the symmetrical triangle, really looks a bit like an ascending triangle, which is a continuation pattern

Since these are fairly long-term patterns (not a month or two), I think they are more reliable.

Gold should break out soon.

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