Phantasmix

This was brought up in the comments, and I’d like to discuss this topic separately. In my opinion, it makes sense to only short both long and short ETFs. The way they’re structured, both long and short ones have a high “leak” rate due to the daily rebalancing and expense fees. By always being on the short side, you win just a little bit more. So for example, if you want to…

• long financials -> short SKF
• short financials -> short UYG
• long commercial RE -> short SRS
• short RE -> short IYR, etc. etc.

Some visuals to back up my strategy…

Turns out bank failures are not that common:

Source: FDIC Failed Bank List

• 2008 : 11, to date
• 2007: 3
• 2006: 0
• 2005: 0
• 2004: 0
• 2003: 3
• 2002: 11
• 2001: 3
• 2000: 2

USA, 1981

Population - 229,466,000
Unemployment rate - 7.6%
Total unemployed - 17,439,416

USA, 2008

Population - 301,139,947 (July 2007 est.)
Unemployment rate - 6.1%
Total unemployed - 18,369,536

Lower unemployment rate, but more people actually unemployed.

Today I had a pretty good day, in fact, my personal best so far.

Lots of trades, I even got bored with Twittering everything so I’m taking that page down unless someone expresses an interest in it.

I’ve put up a new page “Market Pulse”, where I’m going to collect various indicators, that I come across.

• Sold (SDS: 69.66 -0.43%) in the morning, covered (PLCE: 41.25 +2.15%), (PSUN: 6.53 +1.24%), 1/3 (JCP: 40.79 +3.08%), 1/2 (LVS: 42.62 +1.24%).
• Went long (MOS: 94.52 +7.68%) and then chickened out - unfortunately. It’s up huge now.
• Traded (SKF: 112.70 -5.21%) on the short side 9 (!) times, all wins.
• For the weekend, I have 3 short positions, but also have half my (QLD: 66.99 -0.34%), and started a long (X: 113.61 +0.83%) trade.

This is just a re-cap. So many trades today, must analyze (later).

… or even an evening star, instead of hammer, also bullish.

Looks like (SPY: 124.42 +0.31%) will print a hammer candle today. Up and away on Monday!

(XHB: 19.89 +1.38%)

Wanted to short the home builders, but the broker doesn’t have any shares to borrow. This is the first time I came across this.

(FSLR: 236.01 -0.47%) is finally dropping, after causing me several sleepless nights a couple of months back. I missed the drop.