Phantasmix November 15th, 2008
Click charts to enlarge
Shows that the index tends to stay fairly close to its 50MA.
We’re closer to the 50 moving average, but only because it’s come down! Both moving averages have come down in the last 2 weeks.
50MA is now at $1,040 (down from $1,110), and 200MA is at $1,257 (down from $1,278).
In case of a counter-trend rally, SPX should recover the 50MA and probably 200MA.
Phantasmix November 10th, 2008
Click to enlarge
Daily view
Weekly view
Does anyone have any doubt that Apple will go down further? Maybe not right away but in the next few months. $90 and $70 are the immediate targets on the downside.
Upside? Good for a trade, not a buy-and-hold yet.
Phantasmix November 3rd, 2008
R1 $98.77
S1 $94.68
R2 $100.72
S2 $92.54
Phantasmix November 3rd, 2008
Same stocks, different charts.
AAPL resistance $120. Channel should be re-drawn as there is now a higher low in place.
$250 is the top of this downtrending channel, and is also above the 200MA level. I’d be very shocked if it got that far. 50MA looks more realistic.
Can MA get above 20MA? Dunno.
Phantasmix November 3rd, 2008
As usual, I will be tracking SPX/SPY and will trade SDS/SSO according to what’s going on.
Will also watch (AAPL: 94.58 0.00%), (FSLR: 157.80 0.00%) and (MA: 153.26 0.00%). All 3 look to me like they need to correct very soon, if not immediately. If that happens, I’d buy AAPL on the dip, but would short MA and FSLR on a pop.
I will buy AAPL on a dip, around $100.
I’m short FSLR now, and will trade around that position (on the short side, of course). That 50/200 is still in progress, and Bollinger Bands are narrowing. Overall, the chart looks ugly to me. I don’t think an Obama win would save this stock. Industry pioneers never make it (and that’s not usually the plan, it certainly wasn’t in this case).
Don’t think MA will go much higher from here.
My current positions: short FSLR, long EEV (this is just killing me, dammit), long ABK (Ambac), long LVS (Las Vegas Sands).
Phantasmix September 29th, 2008
I can’t get over missing this today:
So many “epic-feeling” days lately. I have to figure out how to store all these historic newspapers.
Had I been here on Friday, I’d sell (PWE: 12.91 0.00%). Today was too late to sell, and I only had a very brief access to a secure internet connection. I was able to watch the market action, but couldn’t do much about it.
Slightly (relatively speaking) down in (AUY: 7.26 0.00%). Now would be an incredibly wrong time to sell, in my opinion.
Playlist for tomorrow is short. I’ve been away for 2 days and need to quickly re-learn how to ride this bicycle. It may not seem like a long time, but I was immersed in work even though I watched the markets. Need to refocus and so just 2 stocks for me for tomorrow to make it easier.
SPY or SDS (not sure if I trust Proshares in the light of the ever-expanding short ban), and MOS.
I will go long or short depending on the weather 
but more likely short. It’s going to rain here.
Phantasmix September 18th, 2008
Trading after-hours has been halted today. Again, not just with my broker, I heard others say the same about theirs. Some are able to trade but probably not through discount brokers.
Longs
(SDS: 66.51 0.00%) UltraShort S&P500 ProShares, $66
(SKF: 105.84 0.00%) Ultra-Short Financials, daytrade only, and only after 1pm
(QID: 52.34 0.00%) NASDAQ double short, buy when (QQQQ: 31.02 0.00%) = $46-47
Shorts
(MOS: 37.67 0.00%) Mosaic, $95
(JCP: 21.52 0.00%) JC Penney, $1-1.50 daily range, trade
(SHLD: 41.32 0.00%) Sears Holdings, at $115
(DE: 42.89 0.00%) John Deer, $67
I’m pretty sure the market is going much lower and will only short stocks (unless they ban shorting). I won’t be trying to catch the bounce.
If they ban shorting, I will just walk away or daytrade only.
Other than trading SKF I don’t want to touch the financials, at all, ever again.
And need to think what to do with the money. US$ feels less safe with each day.
Daily, then weekly
Phantasmix September 3rd, 2008
In this order:
Phantasmix September 3rd, 2008
Today, I’m back to what is becoming my favorite trade: shorting (JCP: 21.52 0.00%), JC Penney.
They announced the same-store-sales today for the Back to School season. The number is -4.9%, overall sales are down more than 3%. On the back of this wonderful news - *snort* - the stock rallied something crazy. Note, this is now 6 up days in a row for JCP. What a champion! That expression “with stocks, what goes up, will continue to go up” must stop at some point. I’m betting that point is near.
I dipped a toe today, 60% in at about $41. May have to add close to $45, which would be a complete blow-off top. It’s levitating above all MA’s and channels.
Relevant stats: 1-month performance +37.5%, short float 8%, 2 days to cover.
Phantasmix September 1st, 2008
This is a watch-only list at the moment. I still need to exit my current positions before moving on to something else.
(NOVL: 3.81 0.00%)It had a nice big breakout above all MA’s on strong volume, looks good on both daily and weekly charts. Drawback - 3 up days in a row, must have a pullback. Maybe good on a pullback.
(TSO: 14.37 0.00%)Refiners have been beaten to a pulp. VLO is the strongest of them all (I think) but this one’s cheap and just as volatile. So you get moves of the same size as VLO but for half price.
(LIZ: 3.39 0.00%)Charts look healthy, and there’s some rotation into retail happening. Target $18-20.
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