I added SLW twice since the initial buy-in on Feb 7. My ACB on it is $35.58. [ edited to add: current price [[SLW]] ]

A note on options: XLF options are fairly priced and track the stock very very well. Surprised me. SLW options are lagging behind. Didn’t surprise me

What’s up with the dollar? I still have some US$ left, should I just convert it all to Cad$?

The post This Week’s Trade Updates Out of $XLF Added $SLW appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

It also sorta looks like an inverse Head-and-Shoulders (bullish) pattern? but I’m not entirely sure.

I want to buy the stock today! What if I buy it and the price drops? Based on this I came up with a solution that will work for me.

Here’s how it would look at today’s prices: I buy 200 shares at $16.65, sell 2x $15 June 2011 calls at $2.10.

• If the stock drops as I anticipate, I’ll buy the call back for less. For obvious reasons, can’t predict the profit at this point;
• If it doesn’t drop, and gets called away, I still make a profit of 1.8% net.

The plan is to hold XLF and write calls. Rinse-repeat.

So, in summary – if you can’t wait, buy early, then sell a deep in the money call, but not too deep so that you lose money if the stock is called away.

Calculation done using this covered calls calculator.

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The post $$ Buying Stock Too Early: Covered Call Strategy for the Impatient $XLF appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

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Clean breakout on higher volume…

Or this:

The post XLF Financials Update, May 4th appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

Typically this would be a breakout pattern (should break above, through the flat side). However, volume is decreasing and short-term RSi has been diverging from price.

Click to enlarge

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EPS this year

[[SPY]] : -225.64%
[[XLF]] : -1,888.64%

Performance YTD

[[SPY]] : -3.28%
[[XLF]] : -11.77%

The post SPY, XLF Earnings Per Share (EPS) Change appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

Click charts to enlarge

$SPX

Retraced nearly 100%

XLF

Looks good. Low-volume week and WFC pre-announcement manipulation or not, the fact is the pattern I was watching played out as expected. Possible scenarios:
– fills the gap and goes back up
– consolidates just above new support level, this would be the proper behavior for a high volume breakout

U.S. Dollar Index

Despite bullish patterns that worked out on the financials and SPX (and XLU and probably some other indices), oddly enough the U.S. dollar is showing the same pattern. Should it break out, this rally may die. $US is a factor that may work against the continuation of the move up. It’s one of those things that works, until it doesn’t.

$S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average

Seriously overextended, must correct

$NDXA50 Nasdaq 100 Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average

Same here

QID

On long-term support here

SDS

Same here, though it can still go lower, to yet another long-term support level

The post S&P 500, XLF, US Dollar, Inverse ETFs — Charts and Indicators appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

Click charts to enlarge

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2-year weekly chart of S&P 500 index
Getting overbought, so we can probably expect some weakness in the next week or two. Vertical lines show previous times when weekly RSI(3) was in overbought territory and slanted lines show market softening as a result.
I think those will be buyable dips, unless the U.S. dollar strengthens.

$VIX

Daily chart of the Volatility Index
Broke down (but still sort of at support if you draw a horizontal line)

XLF

Financials ETF daily chart
While it’s overbought, the question is — do you want to mess with the government? Besides, the sector is coming out of a severely oversold condition (85% drop!)

Have a good weekend, you.

The post $SPX, $VIX, XLF Charts appeared first on Phantasmix.com.

Click to enlarge

I’m holding all sorts of positions in financials right now — FAS/FAZ shorts, FAS long, FAS calls.

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